Saturday, 7 September 2019

What a mess

With some bemused interest I watch the British political system tear itself apart.

Ever since the UK joined the EU British politicians have used it as a convenient source of blame thus avoiding responsibility.

As part of an effort to win the "unwinable" election Cameron offer the electorate a "binary choice" (in or out) vote with the additional statement "there would be no second referendum". He also stated the EU would need to be reformed and he would get a better deal for the UK prior to the referendum. There was no EU reform and no tangible better deal. The majority of the electorate subsequently voted Out.

Teresa May negotiated a compromise withdrawal agreement attempting to please the majority of parliamentarian which failed in the house three times.

Boris Johnson then promised either a deal by 31 October or the UK would leave without a deal. That appears to have been thwarted by Parliament.   Effectively parliament has rejected the only deal being offered by the EU but won’t agree to leaving without a deal.

Both the Conservatives and Labour have major divisions within their parliamentary caucus's. Although one might think the Conservatives have been able to eject their rebels which has also left them further weakened.

Parliament has enacted legislation which will force the government to seek a three month extension to the 31 Oct deadline if they cannot obtain a "deal" from the EU.

The EU is obviously not going to give the government a deal other than the previously negotiated Withdrawal Agreement already rejected three times by Parliament.

It's in the EU's interest for this delay to continue thus forcing the UK to accept either the existing agreement or something that looks very similar. Such an agreement doesn't provide the UK with any form of real independence but rather makes it a vassal state having to take EU requirements without any vote in the drafting of them. Hence the reason for Parliament previously rejecting it.

What will Johnson do? One scenario might be for him to inform the Queen he is no longer able to effectively govern and recommend she requests Jeremy Corbyn forms government. Corbyn would need to form a minority government. He would get the support of the Liberal Democrats and SNP, but only on the condition he took 'Leave' off the table. He wouldn't get the support of the Conservatives or Brexit party.

Corbyn has stated he would get a deal from the EU. However I can't see the EU offering him anything other than the current agreement. Moreover Corbyn would be faced with the situation of having to call the election that Johnson wanted.

Labour, Conservatives and Brexit party would all campaign on the platform of leave. Albeit Labour and Conservatives "with a deal". Liberal Democrats and SNP would campaign on the platform of remain.

What would be the result. SNP would likely take all the seats in Scotland. Conservatives might take some seats from hard leave Labour electorates in the north but lose remain seats in the south to the Liberal Democrats as the Brexit Party would split the conservative vote. The Brexit Party might gain a few Labour seats in the north.

The result would likely be a hung parliament. Something the EU could live with. Meanwhile the UK parliamentary system remains in chaos.

What a mess!


Mike Griffin said...

Right in one. what a cock up! and the wishes of the electorate totally ignored. what is the point in voting. As one newspaper pointed out -'if the Umpire (Berco) is biased, what's the point in playing'. Looks like you will be up for the Ashes again this year.

Mike Griffin. Living in a totally confused Country, in a totally confused World.

Tom and Jan said...

Yes..... unless the team run out of sandpaper! :-)